WAS PAKISTAN READY ON 11 MAY 1998?

When Narasimha Rao, the Indian National Congress Prime Minister called for snap elections in 1996, it was time for Pakistan to brace itself for the events particularly if BJP came to power. BJP had posed serious challenges to the INC coalition on charges of corruption and was poised to electioneer on issues that were most endearing to the philosophy of BHARAT VERSHA.   Pre election opinion polls indicated that BJP was most likely to emerge as the single largest party. The most challenging question for Pakistan’s security planners was; would BJP follow its rhetoric of nuclear testing if it came to power?

As destiny would have it, I was the only officer in the General Staff with sound academic credentials in Nuclear Proliferation and Strategy. Though the study was simultaneously being carried out by many concerned branches, the ultimate responsibility of carrying out the final analysis for the General Staff in GHQ fell on my shoulders. Destiny placed me in the footsteps of a great Pakistani diplomat, Mr. S M Burke, who had been most instrumental in procuring Pakistan’s first nuclear reactor from Canada.

To carry out an accurate study, it was time for an in depth appraisal of known Indian nuclear capabilities and development. The first step in the study was to pin point the deficiencies in India’s technical nuclear capabilities and what were they most likely to do to address them. Within a week, my team had read through and sifted extremely important findings about the Indian Nuclear and Space Development Program.  

1.                   We knew that the explosion in 1974 was a conventional 1950 design and needed to be fine tuned for confirmation and miniaturisation.

2.                   We knew that based on decay rates, India needed further data not only to confirm its previous testing but also calculate the life of the war heads.

3.                   We knew that though India was already refining plutonium, the fissile material had never been tested in an explosion and the subsequent data crucial to war head designs.

4.                   We knew that the war head designs had to be compact so as to be placed in the tips of the delivery systems. Boosted weapons and miniaturisation were therefore a necessity.

5.                   We understood that the quest for Bharat Versha would be incomplete without India boasting thermo nuclear devices.

Simultaneously, through the recently introduced internet, we got a special connection and hooked on to a satellite that transmitted pictures of Pokhran with a 48 hours delay. Initially there was no activity but by February 1998, we began noticing track marks and considerable activity. We estimated three months before India could resume nuclear testing.

At the same time we continued receiving inputs from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, diplomatic chatter and the intelligence agencies of Pakistan. These bits and pieces were accurately fitting into our knowledge base and the photography. By mid February, the analysis was ready and subjected to an in house discussion in the General Staff Branch after which it was put before the COAS, General Jehanghir Karamat. The preparations in Pakistan began.

Due to India’s limited capability in enriching uranium and processing plutonium, we had reached the conclusion that India will conduct the following explosions.

1.                   A repeat of 1974 design for confirmation.

2.                   A boosted weapon system based on a plutonium design.

3.                   A two stage thermo nuclear testing with the first stage based on a conventional design or a boosted weapon to produce the heat necessary for a nuclear fusion.

4.                   We were of the opinion that cognisant of depleting fissile material stockpiles, India would not carry out more than three tests but at the same time test warhead designs without the fissile material.

I was on a physical workout on 12^Th May 1998 when Director General Military Operations Major General Tauqir Zia called me to inform that India had carried out some nuclear explosions. Glued to the ZEE News, we saw the breaking news. There was no surprise and we worked for the next 48 hours. These 48 hours in the planning room were the best I had amongst senior officers. There was indeed urgency but no air of typical military seniority. We were all one, taking turns and handing out refreshments to each other irrespective of our ranks.

In days to come, the accuracy of our study was vindicated. The graphs of our monitoring stations indicated three major bangs, the last one flattening out. The first was a fission reaction of considerable yield. The second indicated a smaller yield confirming it was plutonium based boosted weapon. But the flattening out of the third explosion indicated that the second phase of the thermo nuclear device had fizzled out.

For my team, it was a moment of extreme satisfaction, pride and humility.  Based on research, conclusions drawn through empiricism and important intelligence gathering, we had ensured that Pakistan was not caught napping. We had given enough lead time to our scientists to prepare and conduct a series of nuclear testing as a credible and befitting response. All this would never have been possible without the confidence that senior officers reposed in us and the guidance of Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema, the Chairman of the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, Qaid e Azam University Islamabad.

With technical issues left to our scientists, engineers and logisticians, it was now time to carry out an in depth appraisal of the international reaction and budgetary consequences for Pakistan. It was also time to lay the foundations of a Nuclear Policy and Doctrine that would ensure a durable peace in the region and foresee a negotiated settlement of all disputes with India.

One of the most important conclusions of our study was that the post nuclear Pakistan had to be more responsible. The message went unnoticed by the political establishment.  General Jehanghir Karamat had proposed a Committee of Defence and National Security (CDNS) as the single competent forum to pull Pakistan out of its political and economic crises. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif saw it as an affront to the political establishment and a precursor to praetorianism. Being a gentleman that he was, General Karamat resigned and with him the vision of a peaceful, self reliant and strong Pakistan.

With the new COAS, Pakistan soon changed course and the coterie plunged Pakistan into its deepest crises one after the other. I wonder if it would ever be possible to put back the clock.

Brigadier Samson Simon Sharaf is a retired officer of Pakistan Army and a Political Economist.

Email: samson.sharaf@gmail.com

RISING PAKISTAN: A NEW NARRATIVE (The First Line of Defence in a Long War)

The Kakul news buster is relegated to distant memories of many? Some who see nothing positive coming through a corrupt and conceited dispensation; some happy for the knock it gave to the maligned Ghairat Brigade, a term used for anyone who argues against unilateral US intervention in Pakistan’s affairs. Much that I wrote in ‘Pakistan’s Long War has begun’(http://www.opinion-maker.org/2011/05/pakistans-long-war-has-begun/)a fortnight ago has proven correct as also vindicated by the latest spate of Wikileaks. Unfortunately, the priority of the media was to debate sensationalism rather than conduct an informed and sane discourse on the events and how Pakistan should brace itself for the future. 

In reality nothing has gone unnoticed by affected parties. The media would soon relish an opportunity of sensationalism never witnessed before, while USA equipped with a trove of information will become a bigger bully. The Presidency will smile away while the ISI and Military are pushed back. Meanwhile the non state actors have begun to strike with vengeance. If true, the appointment of Saif al-Adel as the new Al Qaeda leader will rekindle Saudi-Iranian rivalry on Pakistan’s battle fields. All this will come to pass in an environment where the State is not in control.

In the dirty and cantankerous wargame of intelligence agencies, deceitful verbal demarches revealed only by Wikileaks, proves that the Government and Military General Staff has run out of ideas and lacks vision to seize the initiative crucial to a conflict. To rub salt to injury, they also lack ideas in totality. Pakistan, as in the past appears best prepared to oversee its own attrition. 

The much hyped Joint Session of the Parliament proved one of the many jokes played with the nation through a media sullying on Breaking News devoid of intellectualism. The quick Kerry visit ensured in the interim, that the nation does not galvanise over national security, and rather sow suspicions and doubts. His sprint to the Army house even before he had seen the President and Prime Minister ensured that he projected sufficient compliancy to make high politics smoother. On return, according to a renowned Pakistani journalist, he announced that he had managed to cajole Pakistan’s Military and Intelligence leadership into commitments for concise, accurate and verifiable military actions.  It meant that the Joint Resolution was a still birth whilst ensuring that all domestic ire will be deflected towards the Military and ISI to the fulfilment of US objectives. As written by me in ‘US War of Attrition’ (http://sharafs.wordpress.com/2009/04/) in April 2009, “In the background and away from the eyes of observers, the dirty game of intelligence and counter intelligence operations will continue with ferocity and mutual betrayal. Politicians ready to sell their mothers will be engaged and mutual erosion of the state of Pakistan will continue”.

Even though the nation has been continuously fed lies, the unending façade has made everything readable and transparent. Had the policy planners war-gamed the entire scenario since 2001 half as accurately as my articles, Pakistan could well have been on the road to prosperity and a valued commodity on the international scene. The ways the country and its affairs have been run ever since are conspicuous by the absence of the aspirations of the people and development. With such negativity and plummeting socio-economic conditions, conflict is inevitable. However, common man well aware of the conceit continues to hold back in hope of a just universal franchise to bring a change. 

So, what is the way forward?

The Myth of Tied Trade and Aid

I belong to the same school as Dr. Ishrat, Dr. Ashfaq and Yusaf Nazar that considers US aid to Pakistan as dispensable. Blessed with skilled labour, efficient white collar force and abundance of resources, Pakistan’s economy is capable of bouncing back within a year, particularly when the agriculture sector and overseas work force are capable of giving that jump start for the first two years. Pakistan’s economists and social scientists must prepare a detailed and comprehensive study to analyse the effects if US and IMF aid and loans are cut off? In 1998 Pakistan absorbed the shock and despite all mismanagement, the signs of growth were positive by 2000. Remember, in the past Pakistan lived through 13 years of sanctions with inflation and consumer price index in check.

A Constitutional Gap:  National Security through Elements of National Power

As I wrote in, ‘Challenges to Pakistan’s Nuclear Stability’ in Nation, the limbo lacks the political credibility to handle a nuclear deterrence regime. Private armies, illegal immigrant terrorists, USA and NATO all violate Pakistan’s territorial integrity with impunity. There is undeniably a constitutional gap in Pakistan’s security management. The military oversees the strategic aspects while social and economic security aspects are relegated to the Babus. There is no infusion of the public aspirations in the security paradigm of the state. Much that Pakistan tries to safe guard on the strategic front is lost tamely just because the elements within the paradigm of national power are not synchronised. Pakistan’s Policy Planners and Researchers must sit together and formulate a new National Security Policy that truly reflects and implements the aspirations for a progressive, self reliant, credible and peaceful Pakistan.

Role of Parliament, Media and Researchers

Oblivious of the larger canvas, the Parliament and media of Pakistan are talking tactical matters. Let aside identify, they have not dilated on the irritants and concords in Pakistan-US relations. There is no debate on how to handle relations with USA in future or what should be Pakistan’s role and contribution to this conflict; most importantly the diverse strains of militancy and Al Qaeda. The Parliamentarians, establishment, media and opinion makers of Pakistan have to find snap and correct answers to these questions in days. 

Handling US Contractor Recruitments

Of late hundreds of soldiers and officers particularly from the Special Services Group have joined private US contractors. The Ministry of Defence must recall all these individuals, scrutinise their activities and formulate a policy subject to Military Law that ensures that these retired personnel do not work against the interests of Pakistan.   

Handling of Remittances from Abroad

From 2000-2006, Pakistan’s banking system was deluged with remittances that the Central bank failed to handle, something I analysed in my series of articles ‘Pakistan’s Economic Hitmen’. This resulted in a windfall of trillions of rupees that added to inflation, consumerism, defaults and bubbles. Pakistan’s economic revival plans must ensure sound policies to tap this huge national resource of expatriates for national development that is productive, sustainable and growth oriented. 

Regulation of NATO-ISAF and Afghanistan Traffic

Like the contractors of India in World War II, a class of dirty rich suppliers and contractors is growing in Pakistan; courtesy supply chains for NATO-ISAF. Most of this traffic is unregulated, dubious and highly corruptive. Over 22,000 containers have disappeared purportedly hundreds with sizable military arsenals that can be both used by militants and US agents to pre position hardware for Cold Start Type Operations. The government should immediately call a national security conference over this issue and adopt a policy duly ratified by the Parliament on the following lines: -

1.                   All container traffic should be shifted to Pakistan railways. The cost of fencing and security of the railway system should be met by NATO-ISAF. This will also save the road network of Pakistan from further deterioration.

2.                   Custom Clearance at the ports of entry should be detailed, intrusive and all containers must be scanned by thermal imagers.

3.                   The railway should operate this container traffic with a high speed battery system while the Ministry of Interior should ensure all safety measures.

4.                   Pakistan Customs must verify containers at the port of exit.

5.                   All containers must be tagged with GPS and satellite tracking to ensure they reach their destinations. This tagging should be a joint and shared activity of the Ministry of Interior, Railways, Customs, NATO-ISAF and Afghanistan.

A new Social Contract

As reflected by Election Commission itself and the complexities of the NRO, the present political dispensation is a farce lacking representative credibility. Following the Supreme Court orders on revision of electoral rolls, the country must immediately proceed towards snap elections that are free, fair and efficiently managed. 

Last but not the least, Instability in Pakistan is an important plank of shaping of environments by USA in the region. Notwithstanding veracity, the timed release of Wikileaks has to be viewed with circumspection. Another rumour calls on the ISI chief to resign under US pressure. Why must USA be interested in his removal if he is compliant to their policies? Or are we witnessing a last battle at an individual level by a patriotic Pakistani?

Brigadier Samson Simon Sharaf is a retired officer of Pakistan Army and a Political Economist.

Email: samson.sharaf@gmail.com

THE CONFLICT OF GEOGRAPHY

Published in NATION Pakistan on 25 Dec 2010

The message being sent to Pakistan in the post Wikileaks scenario is ominous and bereft of diplomatic dignity. “We will continue to insist to Pakistani leaders that terrorist safe havens within their borders must be dealt with,” said President Obama. Retired Gen. Jack Keane, put it more bluntly: “Don’t just put a finger in their chest, put a fist in their chest.” As predicated in my columns, USA is expanding the drone war into Pakistan while our national leaders continue to put a façade of protest in the backdrop of tacit compliance.  

If USA is adamant in pushing its own interests in Afghanistan and remains insensitive to Pakistan’s security, ethnic and other social concerns, Pakistan is well within its right to pursue its own ends of policy. After all it was these objectives that formed the basis of Pakistan’s cooperation with the US in the war against USSR and allowed free access to Afghans for over two decades. More than 70% population of Afghanistan is ethnically, linguistically and culturally linked to Pakistan. Despite the Durand Line, the ethnic Pashtuns and Gujjars have been flowing to and fro for centuries. The Powindas, as we call them, have rights to grazing meadows, encampments and movements as if it was their own country.  Cognitively they are as much Pakistani as those living on this side of the divide. A deliberate effort is now being made to label this cross border movement as sanctuaries and lump the blame for failures on Pakistan.

Pakistan’s objectives have been consistent and USA was aware of these sensitivities once it embarked on its Shock and Awe in Afghanistan. To expect Pakistan to forego these historic, cultural, family and religious linkages to the chagrin of its public sentiments and long term interests is tantamount to asking Pakistan’s surrender.

Agreed, that within the big power play, small countries enjoy little freedom of action, but as the war of non state actors expands, the lesson is clear; it is possible to resist and defy super powers with a cause that has public appeal.  Non State Actors like Al Qaeda, Taliban and the Wikileaks have proved so and Nation states backed by its people must do so as well.

On the systemic spectrum of national power, these idiosyncratic notions of leadership, national character, morale and ability to seize fleeting opportunities is what all successful nations of the world have capitalised on. Many have reinvented themselves in crises. Vietnam, Sri Lanka, China, Germany, the Balkans, Iran, Venezuela and the people of Afghanistan poignantly demonstrate what national will and character can accomplish.  Amongst these, countries have achieved indigenous self reliance while challenging the international equilibrium through prolonged struggles based on inherent motivations, dignity and self respect.

USA too went through this phase during the American Civil War but forgot the sociology of a conflict when it shifted its national purpose and strategy to the use of Long Arm for global dominance. As more economic centres to balance the US Global Dominance will emerge, the competition will stiffen and tensions heighten. Hence before this multilayered balance of power stabilises, USA seeks to permanently entrench itself in the region to reap resource benefits and dominate the underbelly of Russia and China. In the bargain, it also establishes a strategic presence in the Islamic Heartland that it perceives as a future threat much beyond the non state actors.

In this quest to seize the global resources of the future, US in the short and medium term will not hesitate to use its Long Arm through fanning, prolonging and expanding conflicts in the zones of strategic importance. The entire arc from West to Central Asia is one such zone of conflict in which USA factorises Israel and India to act as two important citadels on the flanks.  Pakistan and Afghanistan are in the eye of this storm.

This entire zone lacks democratic credentials. Most of the countries in the region are Muslim with dictatorships and kingdoms supported by USA. The publicly acclaimed US slogan of bringing democracy is a farce to say the least. It supports dictators and divisive religious policies to cement its presence in the region to the extent of interventions at the micro levels. USA calls all the shots.

First in line are the dictators and kings who need a US umbrella for their survival and reciprocate the services by allowing their sovereignty to be nibbled. The Saudis will not hesitate to request USA to bomb Iran to pulp or choose to look the other way if Israel does so. Egyptians and Jordanians will look the other way when Israel kills and maims Palestinians or constructs illegal housings.

Then there are countries vacillating between dictatorships and sham democracies with weak institutions, dependant on US/Arab support for economic and political survival. These countries are also exposed to the strings of International Financial Institutions whose controls lie in Washington and represent another dimension of non state interventionism. Pakistanis will permit micro management of its affairs and look the other way when US drones kill more innocent than Al Qaeda. Afghans will play sides and stack away millions of dollars just in case they have to make the run once they are ousted.

Third are the sea of emotions of deprivation, political marginalisation, betrayal, strong feelings of ethno-religious identity and surviving on the fringe. Their political leaders in power do not represent their feelings. These are the neglected lot whose emotions overflow the brim; who can act violently to preserve their national identity whilst some could fall victims to the extremist agenda. These are the downtrodden that hold the key to the fleeting opportunities of national character and morale.

It is time to admit that the resistance to US occupation in Afghanistan is as much indigenous as it was during the British Afghan Wars and the Soviet Invasion. It is not led by the Taliban alone but also comprises politically and ethnically diverse groups such as Younis Khalis, Gulbadin Hikmatyar and Haqqanis. As the resistance increases, in Kanduz and northern Afghanistan, it also indicates that despite a decade, the fire of Afghan pride is conflagrating. If USA does not resort to engagement methods other than the long war, it assures that it will meet its biggest defeats at the hand of rag tags for the second time after Viet Nam. 

It is high time the US Policy Makers realise; once bitten, twice shy.

PAKISTAN’S LONG WAR HAS BEGUN

(1/5 was not Pakistan’s Day)

For Pakistanis, this is not time to feel embarrassed and to hang heads in shame over the simplicity and quickness of the operation that killed Osama Bin Laden. It is rather, a time for a long overdue bugle cry that Pakistan is at War. 1/5 was not Pakistan’s Day inasmuch as 9/11 exposed the vulnerabilities in USA’s homeland security.

Writing in Nation in December 2009, I had assessed the next eighteen months and beyond as crucial for Pakistan and reiterated it in my article ‘Pakistan Must Reassert Itself’ on 20 February. I had written, ‘the next 18 months and beyond will test Pakistan to the verge”.

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=483438749046

Between the 14^th and 17th months we have witnessed the Raymond Davis Case, a drone attack on a peaceful jirga, a fully fledged conventional multi directional night attack on a border outpost in Dir, a border skirmish at Anghoor Adda and now the operation to kill Osama Bin laden.

Writing earlier in Nation in November 2010, ‘Pakistan a Rudderless State’ I had cautioned the security planners of Pakistan to beware of Cold Start Type operations from across the Durand Line. I had also written about the heavily fortified US and ISAF citadels in Afghanistan that would be used as pivots of such operations against Pakistan. No one in Pakistan’s security establishment and the media took notice of the warnings.

2009-2010 had been remarkable years of Pakistan’s fight against militancy. During this time, joint intelligence operations led by Pakistani had resulted in elimination of numerous prized targets both from TTP and Al Qaida. The efficiency of information gathering was such that many high value targets deemed missing believed killed had been brought back into focus and neutralised, some amongst them US nationals. But by mid 2010, this cooperation began to wane due to the direct influx of CIA agents into Pakistan. This influx was not part of the working agreements between ISI and CIA. Pakistan’s security establishment felt that they were being stabbed in the back.

Counter security efforts on part of Pakistan indentified hundreds of locations in Pakistan in which US agents had located inside Pakistan covertly. Some of these locations were heavily fortified and the activities inside them were always dubious. After much rallying, Pakistan was able to force the closure of some of these locations but not all. Meanwhile, the network of CIA’s local informers was spreading, a reason why CIA forced budgetary reallocations for its operations in Pakistan. With huge funds to play around, CIA could now buy off anyone including Al Qaida agents whose data Pakistan had shared with USA. They put tags on many such targets and monitored all their movements and places of visit. Consequently, what they have been able to track with their superior technical resources and heavy monetary disbursements is a trail of redoubts within Pakistan where militants have contacts and hiding places. Then came the Raymond Davis shooting and some issues became public.

There is definitely a trove of very important information that USA has extracted from shared sources and double crossing. One such is the hideout of Osama Bin Laden, his courier trails and much more. The biggest vulnerability that Pakistan faces is that some of its own assets within this Al Qaida trail may have been exposed, or double crossed and could be used to blackmail Pakistan into coercion.

With all this information coming from electronic chatter, media and social websites, I was able to piece a MOST DANGEROUS HYPOTHESES that predicted covert sting and intelligence and overt JSOC operations inside Pakistan that subsequently became the theme of my articles on the subject. Having been vindicated, this does not end here.

I have followed the information about the Kakul raid on a real timeline with startling conclusions.

According to information available on twitter and TV Channels, the explosion and helicopter crash were successively reported before mid night on 1 May 2011.

The call to President Zardari came well past midnight implying that it was made much after the operation had been completed. I am also sure that Zardari was told by President Obama to ask PAF not to interfere in the flight path of the US aircrafts.

Concurrently, by the time Pakistan Air Force scrambled, the US troops were well outside Pakistan’s air space.  

As an operational planner, I am wary of the fact that Pakistan’s surveillance system on the Western Front did not respond. The systems are deployed in layers in multiple redundancies to ensure that some elements of information do manage to beep through. The electronic systems are reinforced with human resources wherein even a section commander in a border post is trained to immediately report a violation/activity in real time. Why such a credible system was forced into passivity should be the subject of an inquiry and a story of the future. Surprisingly, much credible chatter emanated when the US helicopters made the exit.  

I am also aware of the safety layers in US military procedures and purely on technical grounds feel that this operation was carried out by at least four or even more helicopters including transport versions, with credible fool proof backups all along. Simply put, the operation had a sizable operational and logistical trail.

Already information is available that the operation had ground, intelligence and pathfinder support from US assets very close to the target area. 

Does this also imply that there was some sort of complicity by Pakistan to facilitate such an operation? Does this mean that US helicopters did not enter Pakistan’s air space on the day of the raid and were pre positioned for such an operation? However, what can be concluded with accuracy is that CIA agents have penetrated every nook and corner of Pakistan under the eyes of Pakistan’s counter intelligence, a fact that will be vindicated in the near future.

Reaction of Pakistan’s Defence Forces to the raid was slow in coming. Complicity at the cost of such a disgrace appears a bad bargain and unrealistic. The Army and Air Force cannot absolve themselves. The reaction of ISI that will never become public is perhaps that of betrayal by USA. Many of its intelligence assets that it had shared with CIA have now double crossed and as Shaukat Qadir says made Al Qaida richer.  

My analysis leads me to conclude that some levels of selective complicity existed, and it is this that combined with pre positioning of US assets inside Pakistan.

Foreign aircrafts have operated in Pakistan with impunity during the earthquake in 2005, floods, training missions etc. It is nigh possible that these flights were also used to dump hardware at secret locations that could subsequently become pivots for such operations. Troops for such operations could move into Pakistan under the garb of training, diplomatic staff and travellers coming to Pakistan from USA/ Europe, and local recruitments. Remember that some US soldiers as reported by the media spoke fluent urdu in a Pakistani accent.

Then there is also the much hyped issue of CIA contractors in Pakistan. Many of them have since returned but not before completing the ground work for an effective CIA presence in Pakistan all through the Long War.

The retired CGS of GHQ, Lt. Gen (R) Shahid Aziz had once claimed that he himself had reported evidence of US amphibious landing on the Balochistan Coast with the trails leading to interior Balochistan. If these landings indeed took place, where did these forces ultimately go; or where did they dump and move their cargo?

There is also the case of over 22,000 missing containers. Even if a mere hundred of them carried military hardware and knocked down helicopters, where has all the cargo gone and has anyone noticed it. The theory gets credence from a fact that in one of the ambushes, a container had a complete disassembled Blackhawk helicopter of the type used in Kakul.

My hypothesis is that from 2010 onwards, USA had built up a considerable covert military presence in Pakistan facilitated through visas bypassing the standing operating procedures, indiscriminate entry of containers into Pakistan, holding back of scanning equipment to scan these containers and bribes offered by the container operators from Karachi to the Afghan Border. Even the NLC was foxed into this in the name of business. As a military professional, I know that you do not need huge radioactive machines to scan these containers. A good thermal imaging device abundant in Pakistan can do the trick.

It is these reasons that put the Government of Pakistan and the Defence establishment at odds, something like a reverse replay of Kargil. While President Zardari like ever will use the occasion to push the army and ISI back, shore up new alliances to hedge his government, the security establishment may fight back in the name of national Interest. If this happens, it will set a confrontational environment with re alignment of strange bedfellows. As Pakistan will be destabilised further, Obama’s war in Afghanistan would be over and the Long War in Pakistan begun.

The writer is a retired brigadier and a political economist. Email: Samson.sharaf@gmail.com