DROWNED IN RIVERS OF INCOMPETENCE & GREED

Brigadier (R) Samson Simon Sharaf

The destruction caused by the massive flooding from Gilgit-Chitral to Thatta is a tale of destruction wreaked by nature, misery, incompetence and massive corruption. In most places, devastation was avoidable had the water managers of Pakistan not tinkered with nature in exchange for ill gotten wealth, insensitivity to people’s welfare and political mileage.

As I wrote in ‘Drowned in Rivers with no Water’, 70%  of Pakistan’s external debt has been consumed in the Water Management Sector with 60% of it going away in incompetent feasibility studies by foreign experts.  The net result is that either there is no water or too much of it. Drainage, flood protection bunds, dredging and lining of canal schemes designed to control the fury of rivers have all failed because of shady and ghost civil works. Dredging though an annual budgetary feature was never implemented in letter and spirit neither the height of bunds and shoring through stone and concrete works ever carried out on the supposedly completed projects.

Despite month long floods, administrative reactions in lower reaches of Indus are still slow, inefficient and malafide. The biggest manifestation of this inefficiency, incompetence and vested management is the new course of River Indus to the north. The inundation of the entire productive and fertile plains of Southern Balochistan will neither seep nor have an exit. As a result, lakes will be created on the southern slopes of the Kirthar range that shall hang like a daemon on the towns of Shadadkot, Qambar etc. The flood will continue to flow into this area till the fatal bunds breached on the northern side of Indus are not plugged or the flood waters do not run out.

River Indus and its tributaries have always had a history of fury obliterating civilizations and creating new ones.  The lowest depressions of this massive river system still lie in South Eastern Pakistan from Bahawalnagar to Nagar Parkar. This contour of the land also indicates the old course of the lost Nara River called the great Nara depression itself created by the natural forces of earthquakes, tsunamis and flooding.

It was not very long ago that Brigadier Ahsan Tiwana, a nature loving agriculturist had gone from pillar to post suggesting that the extra outflow of Rivers Indus, Jehlum and Chenab should in any emergency be diverted towards this great depression thereby providing water for agriculture, charging of aquifers and reclaiming lands of the Choolistan and Nara Deserts. The wisdom of his proposal is now vindicated. Much of the water could have been diverted to these areas especially when Ali Wan Bund had earlier been made just for diverting water to this untamed desert. As a result the main desert remains dry because its upper fringes irrigated by the canal systems owned by political elites had to be protected. But there is still a heavier cost to be paid by the cities of Kotri, Thatta, Hyderabad and Badin for this act tantamount to criminal intent and complicity to incompetence and vested interests.

25% of Pakistan’s plains including heartland are flooded, infrastructure and cash crops destroyed and over 30% people mostly poor have to start life from scratch after the water has receded. Once the water goes away, the land revenue department will have a field day delineating boundaries and open gateways to massive corruption and bloody feuds. The over centralized response (in reaction to corruption at lower tiers) of NDMA and ERRA-like reconstruction and disaster management organizations and legal issues will slow resettlements.

Many people are now comparing the indigenous national and international response of the 2005 earthquake to these floods. There are three simple explanations for the lack of it.

First, more than 40% of Pakistan’s population has been directly or indirectly affected. Many of the people who responded in 2005 are either victims of this disaster or are helping relatives and friends who are. We are now talking of the entire KPK minus Peshawar, Mardan and Kohat, at least 11 districts of Punjab, 11 of Sindh, over 7 of Balochistan and entire Gilgit-Baltistan. With over 50 million population affected, the scale is just too big for such a response.  

Secondly, international donors have been slow to react. They fear that like 2005, much of the aid will fall into the wrong hands. Aid workers are reluctant to travel due to security reasons as the entire Southern Punjab and Northern Sindh has been portrayed as a hotbed of Talibanisation. In fact there is vested interest that would hope that the flood situation breaks up Pakistan.

Thirdly, a country that had the world’s highest Charity to GDP ratio is at a contradiction within itself. They are reluctant to trust their charities in the hands of political and bureaucratic elites that are corrupt and part of the problem.  This trust deficit is the biggest cause of delayed national mobilization. People either go and do something directly or are waiting for a GODOT to take charge.

But there are many other scars that will be left on the political and development fabric of Pakistan.

First, and of immediate nature is the misery caused to the fertile plains of Balochistan. Soon the rising poverty, absence of governance and resettlement issues will give rise to crime and centrifugal forces. Much of the area will for times to come become permanent lakes and ponds and a grim reminder of the manipulation of flows by political elites.  Ironically, this is also the part of Balochistan that has stood like a rock against forces of secession. Poverty may breed crime at the societal level but one step up, it also breeds sub nationalism.

Notice how a new course of River Indus has been artificially created in an area that has no drainage. We are likely to see lakes and new ponds in some of the most fertile areas of Balochistan. This water will continue to pour in till River Indus does not recede.

Secondly, government’s insensitivity to Atabad Disaster and landslide phenomena since 2002 is a cause of concern. No teams of geologists and hydrologist have been created to study these unprecedented phenomena that have virtually cut off vast areas of Pakistan as also land routes to China.

The third issue relates to dredging of the dams. Warsak has outlived its life and Tarbela is badly silted. It is hoped that these heavy flows may have carried away some of the embedded silt. But more than building new controversial dams, there is a need to study latest technologies and evolve a method to dredge and reclaim these dams not only on continuous basis but also taking advantage of high peak floods and water velocities.

Fourthly, would Kalabagh have averted this disaster? Considering that the dam will be down of KPK that faced the joint brunt of Kabul, Panjkora, Chitral and Swat Rivers the answer is no. If anything, it could have prevented some damages downstream at the cost of submerging Nowshera, Kohat, Chaarsada and some areas of Swabi. So what is the logic of making a dam that inundates the major cities and economic hubs of KPK? Maybe the geologists, hydrologists and engineers consider the option of a smaller storage reservoir at Kalabagh by reducing the height of the dam.

Fifthly, considering that Kohistan and Diamer are beset with mysterious land slide phenomena, very young and loose rock structure and in proximity of major fault lines, would it be prudent to construct Basha at all? With a 300M vertical wall hanging over Tarbela, KKH realigned and memories of Bunji and Atabad still alive, would it be sensible to rush for a Basha that has its own destruction writ large.

All these are very crucial issues at a time when the nation waits for a GODOT. What Mr. Altaf Hussain and Imran Khan are saying is a true reflection of the feelings of majority Pakistanis.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/29-Aug-2010/Rivers-of-incompetence-and-greed

PAKISTAN US RELATIONS: THE LONG WAR

Brigadier (R) Samson Simon Sharaf


A few days back, I had the occasion to meet Professor Walter Russell Mead a US scholar and opinion maker on a fact finding mission to Pakistan. I met him after he had already interacted with some think tanks and important people from Pakistan; some critical and others apologists.

Knowing that he is the Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and also linked to the evangelical church, I was particularly keen to find out how the religious right affected the US policy making. If he is to be believed, it actually does; but I doubt his contention in view of the Kennon Telegram and Tonkin Reports. In my and many respected opinions, it is the Military-Industrial Complex and its think tanks that beef up a case.

As it turned out, his chief intellectual interests involves the rise and development of a liberal, capitalist world order based on the economic, societal, and military power of the United States and its closest allies prominently UK. He also theorises to seek a stable Southern Asia (South, East and Central) with India playing the major role from East Africa to Malacca, albeit containing the rise of China. During discussions, it became amply clear that US occupation of Afghanistan is a mere stepping stone for greater geo political designs in what may turn out in his own words to be a Long War.

He was of the view that Pakistan’s security perspective framed around a hostile and over bearing India was faulty and in conflict with the US perspective of a stable and prosperous Asia led by India. He suggested that Pakistan ought to forget all issues with India and instead focus on a supportive role in the region with India in the lead and become a prosperous country, rather then be doomed economically as it presently is.

But this view is not new to Pakistanis. I recall having met Michel Kreppon of the Henry Stimson Centre in 1995 and 2001 advocating risk reduction and confidence building measures with India. I asked him that if Pakistan was to agree to all US suggestions, would USA guarantee Kashmiri people their freedom. He was quite for some time and then said No. The same can also be said of Ex President Clinton’s visit to Pakistan to deliver a sermon to the nation besieged by military dictatorships, inept politicians and Harvard trained bureaucracy. He refused to intervene on behalf of the Kashmiri people.

Ashley Tellis once wrote that India and Pakistan exist on the extremes of divides and went on to qualify his thesis with historic predispositions and facts. Now a naturalised American and an expert advisor on the region, he qualifies India as a peace loving and caring country to lead Asia and chooses to forget his thesis that propelled him to fame. In one capacity or the other, he remains a bigwig of the region and moulds opinions. So when I read and hear one American opinion and policy maker after another being particularly dismissive of Pakistan and its abilities, I wonder what keeps them thinking in such a manner. Are their pre emptive policies really a solution or an isolationist syndrome built around oceanic insulation and immense military power?

One, Pakistan has not been able to produce the likes of Tellis and Khalilzad, who have managed to penetrate the core of policy makers and shaping opinions. Our scholars and expats of ability invariably choose to adapt to the perspectives of their adopted land and become apologists. They hardly frame opinions. Pakistan’s lobbyists, though highly paid are ineffective.

Secondly, US-Pakistan relations have surged intermittently during times of so called strategic alliances. If Ayub Khan’s letter to a US Admiral in 1955 that spam the cyberspace nowadays is to be taken as a measure, not much has changes since. Each time, Pakistan has acted as a US dependency and then exercised its Flexible Conscience on selective basis. As a reward, USA has been compliant in looking the other way while Pakistan shored its security against India. But this time it is different. While Pakistan continues to do the donkey’s work, it gets no respite and leverage.

As I gathered from the meeting and many opinionated research papers from USA, the issue of Afghanistan is fast becoming peripheral. USA will not withdraw from Afghanistan nor will the pressure on Pakistan from across the Durand Line and world over abate. This confirms earlier circumspection about US objectives in Afghanistan not to arrest OBL and dismantle Al Qaeda, but to occupy the pivot of three Asias for geo strategic gains and world domination. Though the apparent logic and hindrance in this policy may be Pakistan’s fixation with India, it actually boils down to the growing strategic partnership between Pakistan and China. This is what makes the present crises A LONG WAR.

As a face saving threat, it appears that this reasoning spares USA the indignity of another Vietnam type retreat. It shifts the perspective to a global game of US led economic domination that will make another ideology collapse. “You see, it was ultimately the economics that won the war against a communist ideology. Pakistan’s competition with India in asymmetrical and Pakistan will soon collapse economically”, is what Dr. Mead was quick to assert. Built on Paul Kennedy’s thesis of The Rise and Fall of Great Empires, USA has time on its side for things to happen. For Pakistan, it is the final phase of the battle for its integrity in face of a dysfunctional economy that gives rise to internal conflicts.

In my meeting with the Foreign Minister Mr. Shah Mehmood Qureshi on Monday last, I mostly remained a silent listener. The only point I made was that if Pakistan was indeed so vulnerable, why the govermnet was allowing Pakistan’s economy to collapse so easily. He gave no answer; but this is a subject I amply dilated in a series of five articles I wrote in NATION on economic manipulation.

My parting words to Dr. Mead were that Pakistan or no Pakistan, in the final analysis, it is the people of the region who will win. I asked him to read the Forgotten Social Dimension of Strategy by Michel Howard and take a fresh look at his thesis of Asian domination.

As for Pakistan, we need to make a blessing out of the current flooding tragedy and not waste a penny of the aid that comes Pakistan’s way to hedge our flagging rupee and jump start a reconstruction program that actually benefits the common man and not off shore dollar accounts. This reconstruction program unlike the ERRA should set the pace for healthy development activity built around domestic industries and expertise to boost local economies. Concurrently, the entire country should gear towards a national austerity program.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/15-Aug-2010/PakUS-relations-the-long-war

THE ELUSIVE PEACE: A WAR OF ERROR

If it is in the Governments interest to extend the tenure of COAS for the sake of WOT, then it is also in Pakistan’s interest that the tenure of CJCSC be extended. After all, he exercises operational control over Pakistan’s nuclear forces, the objective of the entire mayhem  

 Brigadier (R) Samson Simon Sharaf

Pakistan is strategically located on the crossroads of Central, West and South Asia. This position is enviable but fraught with instability. From 1947 to 1975, Pakistan had to contend with a hostile Afghanistan to the North and a declared enemy to the East.

In quest for a new Pakistan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto rallied the Muslim nations under an Islamic summit and was one of the architects of the Oil Embargo. In 1974, he laid the foundations of Pakistan’s nuclear programme. From 1973-75, he created the nucleus of Afghan student resistance to Sardar Daud and forced him into negotiations. In 1977, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was scheduled to sign an already drafted and agreed agreement with Sardar Daud on the Durand Line. Lamentably, he was over thrown through a military coup, hanged and made a lesson of. His other two allies in King Faisal and Shah of Iran met somewhat similar ends. All three paid the price for disturbing the International Equilibrium of the Great Game.

As events prove, one of the most compelling reason for Pakistan to participate in the US sponsored mock Jihad was legitimacy for a military dictatorship and elimination of  a pro Soviet-India government in Kabul. The vanguard of resistance was provided by the Afghan resistance trained in Bhutto’s days. With the Soviets driven out, USA withdrew with a pro Soviet-India regime still in place. What followed was anarchy created by warlords, diverse mujahidin groups and rise of Taliban all with active interventions from the intelligence agencies of Pakistan, Saudia Arabia, Britain and USA.

In 1996, Benazir Bhutto tried to rewrite her father’s script. During negotiations led by Nasser Ullah Babar, Taliban agreed to moderating themselves and converting Afghanistan into a federation with a power sharing formula. The atmosphere was so friendly that Babar also flew in an entourage of western diplomat families that went shopping in Kandahar and Mazar. Benazir was unceremoniously removed by President Leghari just a day after the draft agreement had been agreed.

In 2002, it was again with Benazir’s intervention that the Taliban agreed to make a Lockerberie out of Usama Bin Laden and hand him over to a neutral Muslim country for trial by a Qazi Court. USA dissented and walked out of negotiations that could have spared the world this War on Terror. Seymour Hersh speculated her to be a victim of special assassination squads.

As I wrote earlier, 9/11 was an opportunity for an otherwise besieged General Musharraf to get the Americans off his back and use them to settle the same question. He was misled by Shaukat Aziz who assured scores of billions of dollars pouring into Pakistan. The short sightedness of this policy became obvious. The entire country including military has been drawn into a most hostile environment where states, agencies and maze of non state actors compete for influence.

Recently, Pakistan’s direct negotiations led by the Military/ISI with Karzai and a nod from McCrystal are now history. For the time being, Taliban with their heads high are unwelcome. Pakistan was prematurely led to play its last cards.

The recent rush of defence and foreign office diplomacy in South Asia and Afghanistan, statements made by Clinton, Holbrooke, Mullen and Cameron suggest a renewed pressure on Pakistan in which India is being co-opted as an important player.  Even Karzai’s tone has changed. Military despatches, sitreps and intreps leaked through WIKILEAKs are in tandem with this policy.  The entire western media on a jungle feast is out to discredit and disgrace the military and ISI which has been implicated only in 30 out of 92,000 reports along with a disclaimer about authenticity.

The target is Pakistan Army and ISI accused of playing a double game, assisting Taliban against coalition forces and creating a new terror network with the help of LeT. This also implies that Pakistan Army continues to deliberately and consciously play a double game against its field formations by engaging them in stage managed and fake encounters; a preposition being made to Pakistani media to take on. This propaganda ignores the fact that Pakistan’s armed forces have suffered the highest toll of casualties in this war.

There have been three consistencies in all the events since 1974. First, Pakistan is repeatedly denied to secure its north western frontier, secondly, to Pakistan’s chagrin; India has always been allowed an influence in Afghanistan by USA and thirdly, peace in the region has been elusive.

However these consistencies may not lead to the logical because the ELUSIVENESS may itself be a recipe for a bigger disaster in making that can swirl either way.

The recent diplomatic offensive indicates that in the next few months, the violence in the region will reach new levels including strikes deep inside Pakistan. If empiricism leads to prediction, then it also points to another elusive summit overseeing valleys full of snakes, in which Pakistan dangerously treads.

This makes the positive impacts of the extension of Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani questionable.

Even western analysts like Anatol Lieven agree that India is a potentially disastrous liability for Afghan policy with limited direct help in the war on terror. Yet why does the coalition choose the Indian soil to make aspersions on Pakistan?  The answer is straight forward; Afghanistan is the base, Pakistan the target and India the containment front.

So what is it that Pakistan has to give up to become a trusted ally? The answer can be read on the face of every Pakistani; Pashtun connection to Afghanistan, Kashmir and Nuclear.

If these be the objectives, then how are the events likely to unfold?

First, AFPAK also arouses the romantic notion of Pashtun nationalism. There are already suggestions that Afghanistan should be bifurcated on ethnic lines into Pashtun and non Pashtun zones. India is likely to play a big role in the North both in development and defending the pivots for attacks in Pashtun areas. The operations will ultimately spill over into Pakistan. After total burnout, efforts will be made to enliven the romantic notion of Pashtun nationalism and carve a new Pashtun nation. What AFPAK chooses to ignore is that Gujjars comprise 35% of Afghan population have intrinsic links with Pakistan. Some of their best known leaders are Dr. Abdul Qayyum and Maulana M.Younas Khalis of Hizb-e-Islami. In fact both Hizb-e-Islami and Harkat-e- Islami are Gujjar dominated groups.

Secondly, the Government of Pakistan will be forced to launch operations against the Punjabi Taliban.  This will create anarchy in the biggest province of Pakistan which will ultimately be divided into more provinces. The myth of Punjabi domination in bureaucracy and armed forced will be broken.

Thirdly, full fledged operations in Kandhar will be launched spilling the conflict into Balochistan. This will most logically happen when Pakistan’s armed forces are fully stretched in FATA, Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa and Punjab. Karachi will become a hot bed of ethnic and sectarian strife. The secessionist movements in Balochistan will intensify and ultimately a direct corridor to Afghanistan will be crafted.

A weak and discredited Pakistan will then be asked to negotiate on US terms.

In the past many years I have repeatedly and accurately pointed to these dangers, but as events have proved, Pakistan has willingly stepped into partnerships that rather than provide security, compromise it.

If it is in the Governments interest to extend the tenure of COAS for the sake of WOT, then it is also in Pakistan’s interest that the tenure of CJCSC be extended. After all, he exercises operational control over Pakistan’s nuclear forces, the objective of the entire mayhem.   

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/01-Aug-2010/The-elusive-peace-a-war-of-error

WHY USA WILL NOT STOP THE WAR: A QUESTION OF CONSCIENCE

Brigadier Samson Simon Sharaf 

Though ordinary citizens may look at war as an end to politics and diplomacy, statesmen of realism paradigm know that it is ‘a continuation of the policy in concert with other means’ (Clausewitz). According to Julian Lider, the transition point to state sanctioned violence however, remains a challenge.

US President Truman faced a very difficult choice after having received the lengthy Kennan Telegram from Moscow. In the midst of electioneering, both Truman and his opponent Thomas Dewey did not want to appear spineless against Stalin. What followed was a Cold War built on containment. Ironically the issue then was not military expansionism, but resistance by Stalin to Breton Woods (IMF & World Bank).

Similarly, the Gulf of Tonkin incident in on Aug. 4, 1964 misled President Lyndon B. Johnson to persuade Congress to authorize broad military action in Vietnam (New York Times, July 15, 2010). Readers must recall that this decision was taken at the heels of resistance by President John F Kennedy regarding Bay of Pigs in Cuba, his plans to thin out from Vietnam and assassination. It is now proven that the Tonkin incident never happened and was sexed up by CIA and Pentagon. US senators chose to seal their conscience.

“If this country has been misled, if this committee, this Congress, has been misled by pretext into a war in which thousands of young men have died, and many more thousands have been crippled for life, and out of which their country has lost prestige, moral position in the world, the consequences are very great,”

Senator Albert Gore Sr. Member Foreign Relations committee March 1968

Pathetically, there were no consequences and no lessons learnt.

New York Times reports that the current chairman of the committee, Senator John Kerry, said that the transcripts were especially revealing to him. In February 1968, during some of the most intense debates, Mr. Kerry was on a ship headed for Vietnam along with thousand of servicemen who never made it back.

Very recently, the Invasion of Iraq was based on deliberately falsified information on the WMD threat from Iraq that never was.

So who is responsible for this huge suffering and massacre? Not only the Americans but also the people of Vietnam, Saigon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan need an explanation.

Having started a conflict, it is also important that the statesman makes a correct assessment of Friction and Culminating Point (Clausewitz), so as to seek peace at the right time. Clausewitz shunned the notion of the Totality of a Conflict and theorised that all wars must be limited to the attainment of political objectives.

However, Statesmen have repeatedly ignored both theories and fallen into a trap where an exit with pride becomes difficult. Statecraft for times immemorial is premised on the paradigm of Political Realism. Armies have fought themselves to physical and psychological exhaustion in face of pacifist values of morals, legality and conscience. In prolonged conflicts, this emotive factor driven by mixed feelings of hate, love, patriotism, ideologies and beliefs even manages to over power the best of armies and technology (Michel Howard in Forgotten Dimensions of Strategy). Wars are planned around a strategic logic and rationality. To the contrary, wars especially long ones cannot be premised around sexed up dossiers, hate and metaphysics.

It is also difficult for statesmen in possession of superior munitions of violence against an inferior foe, overshadowed by a praetorian mindset to bridle a bully within. During the entire Cold War, USA and USSR bullied inferior peripheral states without getting into a direct conflict; the true face of deterrence between equally destructive and ambitious foes.

The logic is also applicable to conflicts between bigger armies and rag tag people. It happened both to Napoleon and Hitler in the harsh winters of Russia. Great Britain retreated from Afghanistan and FATA with its entire expeditionary force mauled. USA had to make an unceremonious exit from Vietnam. USSR disintegrated after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. India tried it with the Tamil rebels in Sri Lanka but being the progeny of the world’s greatest strategist Kautilya, made a timely exit.

The Afghan conflict from 1974 till today is a classic case of shadow intelligence wars, policy mismanagement, corporate pressures within the ruling establishments, vested and competing interest. Iranian Revolution provided an additional twist; a threat both to Arab Kingdoms and US designs. Beyond Islam versus the godless communism, proliferation of anti-Shia militant groups became the hidden agenda of the West and Arab States. Military regimes in Pakistan seeking international legitimacy were quick to board this band wagon with no thought to possible havocs this policy could wreak.

Having witnessed the stagnant coalition operations in Afghanistan for the past eight years and their inability to neither control the Afghan resistance nor eliminate erstwhile ally turned enemy Al Qaeeda, I am forced to comment that expecting Mullah Omar to control Al Qaeeda was insanity of the highest order. Abundant intelligence chatter on the internet indicates frequent contacts of the principal actors like Khalid Sheikh Muhammad, Omar Saeed and the hijackers themselves with CIA training centres and safe houses in USA and world over. Surprisingly, none of the culprits identified by US intelligence were born Pakistani or Afghan citizens. More than anyone’s complicity, it was the biggest intelligence failure of CIA and FBI itself.

Even worse than Pearl Harbour, a homeland attack like 9/11 was too much for US Republican administration to absorb patiently; after all the only super power with the capability to bomb hostile countries to Stone Age. With abundant faulty intelligence and a historical precedence of trigger happiness, Bush Junior took the decision to employ full military might against a people who had once won USA’s war against USSR. It also gave a window to the doomsday prophets and theological detectives searching for the anti Christ to put their full weight behind the killing of the innocent.

The invasion was deliberately planned from the North to push the conflict deep into a nuclear Pakistan. Eight years on, none of the declared objectives have been achieved. Hate of US Policies has grown from thousands to hundreds of millions.

Back in 2002, I had commented that this was a war of hate and USA would ultimately loose it. If pursued further, the world will become a very dangerous place for all humanity. Millions of lambs will turn to werewolves with killing fields spreading world over.

George Bush committed the cardinal sin of transiting to conflict at the wrong time against the wrong people, with wrong reasons. It is up to another Democrat Barak Obama to go down in history like Kennedy or choose the elastic conscience of Johnson. The lesson of history must not repeat itself.

It is a Shakespearian irony that Senator John Kerry chairs the same Foreign Relations committee in 2010, that put its conscience to sleep in 1964 when Kerry, US servicemen and people suffered on the false premise of TONKIN.

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/18-Jul-2010/A-question-of-conscience

STOP THE WAR

THE COALITION OF INTERNATIONAL CONSCIENCE

‘STOP THE WAR’

 CHARTER OF DEMANDS

We, the people of Pakistan, progeny of the Great Nara (Sarasvati), Indus, Gandhara and Muslim Civilizations that predate all civilizations of the world; and a bastion of knowledge since antiquity; and those who have withstood all imperial adventures,

Having evolved a civilization founded on acceptance of higher values of civilized life, respect for others’ rights, culture of giving not taking, and imbibing an ideology of submission to God’s will, with the firmest of beliefs and faith in our abilities to discern the correct civilization path to a better tomorrow,

Disturbed and aghast at the policies being pursued by the oldest and nascent democracies; overtaken by the imperialist, expansionist and exploitative mindset; concerned that democracy is fast becoming the domain of the highest bidders; political-military and industrial complexes, financial cartels and believers of the doomsday scenarios,

Saddened at the gross violations of human rights defined in the Magna Carta, Bill of Rights of the American Founding Fathers and UN Resolutions, an infringement on the values of cultures, Faith in God that reflects separate standards and values; liberal for self and barbaric for others inherently leading to conflict,

Cognizant that silence is acceptance and complicity in the murder of the innocent; considering such militarized preemptions a violation by the governments on the largest suffering class of the poor in Pakistan, Afghanistan and all coalition countries fighting in Afghanistan.

Spiritually disturbed, because all faiths propagate peace, forgiveness and a quest for truth; rightfully asserting that all those who resort to violence and murder of innocent blatantly violate the universal common values of humanity,

Desiring that political and religious leaders in all our nations lead the way to peace for humanity, to stand united as equals, to save mankind and our planet from extinction.

Appealing to the international and national conscience to stand up and declare that ‘enough is enough’ because, civilizations, cultures and ideologies cannot be bombed out of the minds,

We, the Coalition of Conscience demand, that this, illegal, unjust, and inhuman war be stopped through the collective power of human resilience and conscience world over.

CHARTER OF DEMANDS

1.                  The foreign presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan is part of problem rather than the solution;

The coalition Governments must immediately order a cessation of all military and sting operations in the region and allow peace to be negotiated.

2.         Al-Qaeda is a convenient tool to blanket all opposition to US policies in the region and impose unilateral policies;

All efforts to use this pretext to prolong the presence in the region and to pursue an international agenda other than peace must cease.

3.         On going coalition operations have a fragmenting effect on both Pakistan and Afghanistan;

All coalition operations with divisive effects must be stopped.  

4.         The entire spectrum of violence and instability in Pakistan is a backwash from Afghanistan created by the presence of foreign forces. Support to insurgent and terrorist groups in FATA and Balochistan originate from Afghanistan. If this is not stopped, the instability will spread to other regions as well;

We demand the Government of Pakistan to make its own independent policies to ensure peace and development in the region; the mother of all civilizations.

5.                  Afghan movement is led by leaders who are indigenous to Afghanistan and legitimate representatives of resistance to foreign occupation;

These leaders must be treated as party to peace and brought into a comprehensive dialogue process as reflected in Pak-Afghan Jirga of 2007.

6.                  Failing a clear timetable from the coalition for the cessation of war;

The Government of Pakistan will be urged to exercise this nation’s legitimate right to secure its interests against all hostile bases inside Afghanistan, supporting and funding terrorism and insurgency in Pakistan.

7.         In order to ensure long term stability and prosperity in the region;

The Government of Pakistan must carry forward the inconclusive negotiations of 1996 and assist all Afghans (Resistance and Northern Alliance) to mediate peace. We welcome support from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and China with no covert agendas.

8.                  It is not Pakistan’s responsibility to ensure logistics for coalition forces in Afghanistan knowing well that much of it is used to destabilize and terrorize Pakistanis;

This support must stop unless approved by UN and conducted under transparent international safeguards and inspections.

9.                  Gross violations and exercise of human rights on selective bases are widely documented;

All Pakistani prisoners kept by coalition countries, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in illegal detention centers must be brought back immediately and subjected to Pakistani courts.

10.              Rendition centers, trials under duress and extra judicial killings including drones and blanket air strikes violate basic human rights;

War reparations and criminal trials of coalition leaders who have knowingly falsified evidence in support of war before their own people; their Parliaments; and before the UN Security Council must be brought before Law. All Pakistani leaders guilty of same must be tried under Pakistan laws.

These are the ten screams of conscience. Let them travel far and wide through the resonance of people’s will and be understood and acted upon with speed, honesty, and conviction. We wish a better and secure future for all nations of the world.

The founder members of THE COALITION OF CONSCIENCE are:

Pakistan Ex Servicemen Association

Association of Former Ambassadors

Christian Study Center, Rawalpindi Pakistan

Omar Asghar Khan Foundation

Society for Advancement of Health and Education (SAHEE)

KBS Welfare

Sindi Awam Sanghat

Poverty Alliance

Good Governance Forum

Alternate Solutions Institute

Pakistan Overseas League

Defence of Human Rights

And signatory Citizens

All Civil Society Organizations and Individuals world over are invited to join and raise their voice for the future of mankind.

THE NEW AF-PAK STRATEGY

We as Pakistanis should be in awe of the fact that US defence contracts have already floated a bid for increased jet fuel in Afghanistan till 2013, with the condition that it must not come through Pakistan. Does this imply that Pakistan may be under US attack from Bagram in 2012-13? Or does it mean that Pakistan would have plummeted to anarchy by that time.

Much before General Stanley McChrystal had resigned, ‘Obama’s Third Surge’ had already petered into nothingness. The operations failed to create intended effects in a highly destabilized, charged and violent region. McChrystal, the highly decorated specialist in covert operations and assassination squads of the secretive Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) may have been brilliant and brutal tactical hit man, but a strategic failure nonetheless.

His resignation has come as no surprise to analysts following the tug of war between the US Defence and Political Establishment and how the third surge was identically conducted at the heels of the failed second surge. In both failed operations, CENTCOM conspicuously avoided Kandhar but why?

In my article, ‘The Wilting Obama Surge’ in the Nation, I had identified the fault lines within the US establishment. Even the UN envoy in Afghanistan had called it too military driven and doomed to failure. Nothing had worked as per the plan; neither the carrot, nor the stick nor stacks of cash for the breakaway Taliban. The contradictory statements of Gates, Halbrooke and the local military command spelled it all. The foreign press corps in Kabul, obscure from reality was making big news. Media was bubbling with optimism while efforts were at hand to find a scapegoat if the good news turned sour. This scapegoat is now General Stanley McChrystal.

It was indeed at the heels of this failure that USA decided to co-opt Pakistan in the Strategic Dialogue diplomacy. In a typical US media hype, much was made of the prowess of General Kayani as a brilliant military commander with an equally sharp eye on the long term vision. A leading Indian newspaper took the lead in portraying him as the man who was in charge. Guns and Roses were offered to win over Pakistan’s military establishment towards a US driven operation in the region. The entire political establishment of Pakistan was eclipsed. There may have been some tactical compromises, but as events proved, Pakistan resisted the trap. US could not have its way and a new strategy became inevitable. Time for a new plan had come.

This change of heart also caused a furore amongst the ‘Shock and Awe’ rightist who singled out Pakistan as part of the problem (Lisa and Nicholas). This same right saw McChyrstal as an upholder of US Absolutism and a Bush Strategy downgraded by the Democrats. It also set the template of the future US election debate between the Democrats and the Republicans.

Writing on Obama’s Third Surge, I had cautioned,

“The new AF-PAK strategy is a compromise with enough blank space for narratives to be filled later. It is these blank narratives that cause concern… What lies undisclosed is high intensity sting and covert intelligence operations conducted by CIA and the dreaded JSOC. The message is unambiguous. Pakistan will have to face a surge of expanded drone attacks (settled urban areas) by both JSOC and CIA, and a cruel spate of covertly sanctioned illegal assassinations, sting operations and anarchy generated by contractors with leaks capable of breaking hell in Pakistan”.

As an analyst, my biggest concern is to identify the blank spaces in the narratives that need to be filled in after the change of command in Afghanistan and what USA terms AF-PAK. This is a moot to be contended between the Pentagon and the White House in the coming months. In the interim, all ongoing operations in Afghanistan will lose their momentum and the operational pause give a much needed respite to the Afghan resistance to recoup and reorganise. The pause is also a blessing for Pakistan to put its house in order. However, given the ground realities, Pakistan’s politicians will continue to display their insensitivity to national sensibilities and allow the country to drift with only the military calling shots and determining the course of future events.

Much is also being made of the COIN Strategy cited as success in Iraq. Apparently this strategy had a socio economic pincer at the leading edge with dollars being used to buy off Sunni Muslims against hardcore militants linked to Al Qaida. Total economic destruction of Iraq had led to extreme poverty that was later exploited to trade loyalties for bread. This was a controversial US counter insurgency doctrine called COIN devised and implemented by U.S. Central Command Chief David Petraeus in Iraq.

Premised on ‘money talks’ all future operations in AF- PAK will witness a surge of monetary kickbacks as a corner stone to other factors related to combat, overt and covert violence, expanded role of drones (settled urban areas) and terrorising tactics in urban areas. A failing Pakistani economy is mandatory to the success of this strategy.

It is with this reason that my last ten articles on these pages have primarily focussed on the intrinsic link between the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s political economy. The focus of the primary threat to Pakistan shifted long ago from India to bad policy making and bad governance from within. In the worst case scenario, by the time US stabilises in Afghanistan, Pakistan would be a state vulnerable to a COIN Strategy.

Though the modality and command may have changed, we Pakistanis must realise that the American long, mid and short term designs and objectives in the region have not. This should also dispel any illusions that some Pakistanis may have on the benefits of the Pakistan-US Equation as a saviour.

We should rather be in awe of the fact that US defence contracts have already floated a bid for increased jet fuel in Afghanistan till 2013, with the condition that it must not come through Pakistan. Does this imply that Pakistan may be under US attack from Bagram in 2012-13? Or does it mean that Pakistan would have plummeted to anarchy by that time. Supply of jet fuel would start in 2011 about the time when new US operations would be peaking in the region.

Afghanistan is a country whose economy thrives in times of conflict. Already USA is indirectly funding the war against itself through its local contractors and efforts to buy off revolutionaries. The COIN may buy off the war lords but never the romantic revolutionaries. To the contrary, money is endemic to Pakistani Politics. It works wonders especially when it will be funnelled through methods that promote corruption and a black economy.

Under the new command, the next phase of US operations is not likely to commence before September 2010. This also coincides with the time when Pakistan army will be looking forward to a new military chief. Speculative options on the continuity of General Kayani as COAS are rife and so is the rumour and manipulation mill. Hence all rumours must be put to rest so that the military and country can concentrate on the US operations in the Kandhar region and its backwash on Balochistan in particular.

As an appropriate measure, the nation must agree to eat grass, least for the survival of its crowned jewels rather for its own national honour and pride.

If this preparation does not take place before the new surge, Pakistanis will have no option left but to look for a new social contract.

I pray it comes peacefully and not through violence.