(A Brace for Bloody Winters)Brigadier (R) Samson Simon Sharaf
The long awaited Obama Speech is over. It is to wait and see the impact of the third surge in a highly destabilized, charged and violent region. The endgame if one dares, is not what Secretary Clinton wants us to believe.
I would describe the new strategy as a tight balloon in hot air that may rapture even before it reaches close to its objectives. The speech makes all the right noises of an establishment given up on the doctrine of ‘Shock and Awe’ that promoted absolutism in distant lands. It recognizes
Obama is in similar establishment pressure that Kennedy had to bear in Bay of Pigs and when he wanted to thin out from
There is not a deadline. There is- what we have is a specific date on which we will begin transferring responsibility for security, district by district, province by province, in Afghanistan to the Afghans. The process of that and the subsequent thinning of our forces will take place over a period of time and will happen – and will be done based on the conditions on the ground, and the decision on that will be made by our commanders in the field.
The speech is but the tip of iceberg diplomacy. What lies undisclosed is high intensity sting and covert intelligence operations conducted by CIA and the dreaded JSOC. The message is unambiguous.
Conspicuously, there is no mention of
But this is the script left to
The other dimensions of this war will be shaped by our very own.
It began with the manipulative buying of sugar cane followed by the disappearance of Atta from the market during a bumper year. Now the paddy crops are ready with no buyers while the value added industry is going hoarse over extra ordinary exports of raw cotton and yarn. The latest is the manipulation of tomato prices in Sindh by cartels from Rs. 80 to a paltry Rs. 2.
The Sales Tax imposed in 2000 was legislated as a Value Addition Tax (VAT) that never served its purpose. It is yet again being changed to VAT. Traditionally, such taxes are imposed on growing and developing economies. In
This is not a comedy of errors but a deliberately executed policy to halt the wheels. As poverty grows, so will the, frustration and crime in society. This fits into the US Schemes of shaping the environment.
The blanks in the narrative and the implosion being generated within are the hot air that would inevitably lead to a clash between the armed forces, intelligence agencies and the present government. It will also be exploited by self styled experts and media hungry generals to spill beans long after they had sold their conscience, something that serves to prove many
The next 18 months and beyond will be difficult for
- A broad minimum consensus on national security that addresses the war on terrorism, fast track socio economic development at grass roots and economic hedging.
China, Russiaand Iraninto confidence on how intends to play its role in the latest surge. Pakistan
USAto support against the secessionist movement in Balochistan. Pakistan
- Identify and dissected various brands of militants within a broad name of Taliban and deal them separately both politically and militarily. The purpose: to isolate groups with links to al Qaeda.
- Shift counter insurgency operations from a sledge hammer strategy to precision actions based on intelligence, air support and air mobile tactics.
- Just like
USAis engaging Afghan Taliban, we must also engage their sympathisers in Pakistanto draw them away from the al Qaeda operatives and urban terrorists towards a negotiated political settlement in Afghanistanand . Pakistan
- Stop dragging feet on the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) and legislate it as an effective mechanism to counter insurgency and urban terrorism. It must co-opt representative from the armed forces, law enforcement agencies, intelligence, local bodies, civil society and media. The temptation to fill political slots must be resisted.
- The spirit of nationhood must be carried forward from the NFC Award to all other areas of national cohesion, well being and security.
- The private media must formulate a national security code of conduct on sensitive national security matters and black out self styled belatedly confessing opportunists.
The government of