In my assessment, this incident could involve individuals from diverse nationalities. If incidents of the past are to be considered, them even a remote Pakistani connection is but obvious.
Having been put into the box, Pakistan after this Bombay incident could be forced into the corner of the box.
If Kiani and Co complies further, we head for a Place de la Bastille.
There are parallels to the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001. If there is mobilisation by India to exert pressure on Pakistan, the consequences for Pakistan without ever going to war would still be far worse than 2001. Pakistan would be forced to pull troops from the western front to the east as it did in 2001. Even then, I was the sole voice pleading that we should call the bluff and not unhinge. This unhinging allowed the entire backwash of Afghanistan violence to flow into Pakistan and hence the FATA situation.
This time round, it may result into militant control of NWFP and far worse. Karachi may follow on lines of MQM-Pashtun divide resulting in the port city blocked. Supplies from Iran could easily be cut off by the BLA.
From the point of view of National Power, Pakistan is in no position to call the bluff other than showing desperation to the extent of an unambiguous nuclear statement. However, seeing the entire matrix, this may not happen unless the people of Pakistan revolt and there is a real revolution. But all revolutions have a history of being hijacked.
Realistically, Pakistan is in an ‘all loose situation’. Our national leadership including the Army Chief do not measure up to it. Then what? Pakistan will remain a rudderless derelict ship loaded with a nuclear cargo complying to every crest and wave till something happens.
Perhaps the biggest hope will be providence. In that case, the backwash will flow into India and that must be realised by both India and USA.
Then the war would have just begun. 9/11 and Bombay would just seem to be preliminaries.
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